Russian aircraft and helicopter manufacturers face new challenges today. They will have to more actively integrate into the world market, quickly introduce new technologies and, if necessary, exchange qualified personnel.
These and other steps are contained in the draft updated Aviation Industry Strategy 2030. In addition, the document includes the gradual privatization of some state-owned companies. “We are in favor of actively attracting private capital to the industry,” explained Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov.
Benefits are not canceled
For industry participants, the existing state support measures will remain and even expand. "We will stimulate our airlines to acquire a fleet of aircraft Russian production", - said Denis Manturov.
According to him, a new generation of suppliers should appear, working according to the strictest standards, in demand not only in the domestic but also in the global market. "The corporations of the aviation industry are already working in this direction," the minister said.
As before, the state relies on aviation science and ensuring the country's technological sovereignty. "As a result, we expect to build an economically sustainable, globally competitive industry, embedded in international division labor ", - concluded Manturov.
The supplier is small, but smart
A new generation of suppliers, including small and medium-sized businesses, will work not only for the aviation industry, but also for related industries - automotive, space, shipbuilding, transport engineering and others.
Today, all of the largest aircraft and helicopter manufacturers in the world work with many large and small component manufacturers, focusing on the best product development, build quality and perfect after-sales service.
An outdated industrial model of enterprises is still used in Russia. " full cycle"- from casting to assembly of final products. modern world there are almost no such enterprises left - it is unprofitable.
The world welcomes wide cooperation and division of labor, the authors of the document state. According to the executive director of the Aviaport agency Oleg Panteleyev, the strategy directly points to the key features of the "home aircraft building" and suggests ways to solve them in line with the trends of the global aviation industry. And this means that the emphasis should be on the independent development of so-called critical technologies that ensure competitiveness, on inclusion in international cooperation and the division of labor.
Digital factory
The most acute problem for Russian aircraft manufacturers is the tight domestic market and the closed nature of many foreign markets.
The United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) plans to produce about 35 SSJ100s a year in the near future. Opportunities allow doubling production and ensuring profitability of production due to the scale of the business. and they do not fly as often as Europeans or Americans, "Oleg Panteleev explained to Rossiyskaya Gazeta. That is why it is extremely important for Russian aircraft manufacturers to gain access to the international market.
"A breakthrough to Asian markets can be ensured by the implementation of a joint Russian-Chinese project of a wide-body long-haul aircraft (SHFDMS)," Oleg Panteleev believes.
The development of the export of military aircraft will be facilitated by the successful combat use of strike aircraft in Syria.
“It is important to understand what will be in demand in other countries. We rely on new aircraft models. These are SSJ100, MC21, Ka62, Mi38, Ansat,” the ministry explains.
Let us remind you that SSJ100 is a regional passenger aircraft created in close international cooperation, Ansat is a modern helicopter for widespread use in civil and special purposes. Ka62 and Mi38 are multipurpose helicopters, MC21 is a short-range aircraft.
More than 250 are currently operating in the aviation industry. industrial enterprises and over 400 thousand employees
The updated Aviation Industry Strategy focuses on enhanced scientific and technical development of the industry. Despite the implementation of promising projects in recent years, Russia has accumulated a lag behind the industry leaders, especially in the civilian segment. Many key technologies in the Russian aviation industry were developed back in the 1980s. And now in the global market, the requirements for the future aircraft associated with digital technology and innovation.
For example, Airbus is introducing a digital factory, an innovation that will increase productivity, reduce logistics and energy costs by 30%. Boeing and Airbus begin to use 3D printing technology that increases product durability by five times and cuts raw material costs by 90 percent. The development of after-sales service is also important: with the help of new developments, the speed of service provision is increasing in the world.
The projects that will turn the tide may be MC21 and the Russian-Chinese plane SHFDMS, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is counting on.
Let's join the alliance
What methods of integration into the global aviation industry are offered? In addition to export government support measures, this is close cooperation with countries developing their own aviation industry.
"For example, China does not have sufficient experience in the design of civil wide-body aircraft and aircraft engines. India does not have its own developments in the fifth generation fighter, civilian regional, narrow- and wide-body aircraft. The Russian aviation industry has competencies and technologies in these areas and can be a reliable partner for these countries, "the Ministry of Industry and Trade explains.
In addition, international alliances are planning to build according to the "competence in exchange for the market" scheme (for example, with China and India). Moreover, the possibility of creating joint ventures with developing countries for the development, production and promotion of aircraft is being considered.
In projects with international participation with high-tech countries, Russia is aimed at cooperation with France, Germany, the USA, Great Britain, and Japan. "The creation of conditions for international cooperation will be achieved, among other things, through political support from the state, in particular, at the level of intergovernmental agreements," the Strategy says.
When purchasing foreign aircraft, the industry participants, together with the state, will look for opportunities to meet the requirements for potential partners - to include domestic companies in international supply chains, localize the production of components in Russia, and conduct joint research and development work.
A separate topic is support for the domestic market for civil aircraft. When asked by RG what incentives could the airlines rely on when upgrading their fleets with domestic civilian airliners SSJ100 and MC21, they said that they would create special conditions under which Russian aircraft would be competitive in operation.
The problem of the accessibility of remote regions of Russia without a well-equipped airfield infrastructure will be solved, among other things, with the help of aircraft manufactured according to the models of military transport aviation. Taking into account the low serial production of such aircraft, the state will partially share the costs with air carriers for their operation.
Personnel turnover
Another of the strategic tasks is to create conditions for scientific centers to act as independent experts in evaluating constructive solutions and carrying out certification.
For the first time in Russia there will be an institute of general designers of corporations. It is created to coordinate all actions in the field of creating military equipment, as well as for the cooperation of various design bureaus. The main goal is to push the "flow of technology" from the military to the civilian sphere and vice versa. In general, to exclude duplication of design developments.
The strategy refers to the term "staff transfer". He will be able to move within the industry depending on the workload of the enterprise, the availability of vacancies and ambitions for his own career growth of employees, the ministry explained.
"There are a lot of skilled workers, but they are distributed pointwise and are inactive in comparison with other countries. For the aviation industry and related industries, it is important that people are ready to move for interesting and highly paid jobs to factories that experience a shortage of personnel, are ready to receive new knowledge, share those developments that have already helped to restore the industrial complex of a particular region, "- said the department.
The ministry is also considering a migration option in the event of the closure of unprofitable enterprises in single-industry towns. In addition to professional development and retraining of personnel, the programs also provide assistance in solving housing issues.
At the same time, market experts note that the Strategy covers too long a period - until 2030. The dynamics of the global development of the industry is such that the strategy will have to be updated much earlier.
Everything is private
The new industry strategy includes the gradual privatization of some state-owned companies. The aviation industry is now largely dependent on government subsidies. The lack of extra-budgetary funding sources did not allow the implementation of the Aviation Industry Strategy-2015 in full. Therefore, in the future, the stake is on additional private capital and the privatization of state-owned companies.
2.6 trillion rubles will be the total revenue of the aviation industry by 2030, if the objectives of the Strategy are met
"There are different approaches to the management of the industry in the world. The largest American and Canadian aircraft building companies are ruled by private capital, in Europe the state is a shareholder. Russia can choose an intermediate flexible scheme," Oleg Panteleev approves of the turn to privatization.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade clarifies that privatization is one of the possible steps to change the industrial model. The so-called non-core spheres for aircraft and helicopter manufacturers are going to be privatized, which may account for up to 60 percent of all labor costs and investments.
Infographics: "RG" / Anton Perepletchikov / Elena Berezina
After the breakup Soviet Union in the production of trunk passenger liners(i.e., aircraft with a capacity of 150 people and a maximum flight range of more than 4000-5000 km), an American-European duopoly has developed: the market was divided by Boeing and Airbus (Russia produces aircraft of the same size - Tu-204 and Il-96, but their production is of a single nature for state needs). The same concentration took place in the production of regional jet airliners (with a capacity of up to 100 people and a maximum flight range of less than 4,000 km): by the beginning of the 2000s, there were two companies that produce such aircraft in truly serial production - the Canadian Bombardier and the Brazilian Embraer (in Russia and in Ukraine there is, or rather, the small-scale production of an aircraft of this class An-148). It was in the regional segment that the countries that wanted to join a narrow circle of manufacturers of jet passenger aircraft first appeared: Russia with the Sukhoi Superjet project, China with the ARJ-21 aircraft and Japan with the Mitsubishi Regional Jet aircraft. But the market for long-haul aircraft is much more capacious and profitable, and at the turn of the 2010s. three more players announced projects in this segment (analogues of Boeing 737 and A319 / 320/321): Russia with the MC-21 project of the Irkut corporation, China with the C919 aircraft from COMAC and the Canadian Bombardier, whose new CSeries airliner is approaching in terms of passenger capacity " bottom ”to the shortest versions of the Boeing 737 and to the European A319.
Predictions of the giants
Aircraft corporations regularly publish 20-year forecasts for the passenger aircraft and transportation markets — few industries have presented the same long-term forecasts to the public. At the same time, the demand for specific models is not indicated - the breakdown is by class of airliners. Forecasts are made on the basis of thorough and many years of marketing and economic research, but, of course, they cannot foresee such events that at one time hit the market hard, such as the terrorist attacks in the United States on September 11, 2001 or the global financial crisis of 2007-2008. According to Boeing's latest forecast (published in the fall of 2014), 36,770 mainline airliners will be produced by 2033, and their global fleet will increase from 20,910 aircraft in 2013 to 42,180 in 2033. produced by 2033, will amount to a staggering $ 5.2 trillion (almost a third of the US GDP, or about three of Russia's GDP in 2014). Of the 25,680 aircraft produced over the forecasted twenty years, that is, almost 70%, in the Boeing classification, will be “long-haul aircraft with one aisle” (Boeing 737, А320, МС-21 and С919), and in value terms, their share will be about 48%. Regional aircraft, to which Boeing includes the Sukhoi Superjet, will be produced 2,490 units, but their monetary share will be less than 2%, or about $ 100 billion. At the same time, the market capacity of Russia and the CIS regional market along with North America, Latin America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East and Africa, by 2033, will amount to 1,330 aircraft worth $ 150 billion (or 3% of the total world market). The former USSR will need 990 aircraft of the MS-21 type, and 160 regional airliners.
Why did "Tu" and "Il" disappear?
V best years the Soviet aviation industry produced up to 150 passenger jet aircraft a year. In 1991, the last year of the existence of the USSR, 37 Tu-154s, six Il-86s, one Il-96, two Tu-204s and 13 Yak-42s were produced, i.e., a total of 59 jet airliners, while EADS (now Airbus) produced about 170 and Boeing about 600 passenger aircraft. Throughout the 90s. in the West, there were processes of consolidation of the aircraft industry (as a result of which only Boeing remained in the United States instead of three aircraft manufacturers), while all Soviet design bureaus and factories were privatized (or separated into state enterprises) separately. After the collapse of the USSR, the civil aircraft industry in Russia was in a state of collapse, which was caused by a combination of many factors: economic crisis, lack of implementation of new projects, lack of modern Maintenance and financial support for aircraft sales, resulting from the collapse of air travel, a large surplus fleet of cars that are actually free for airlines. Starting in 2001, the state began to look for forms of consolidation of the industry, which ended only in the second half of this decade with the creation of the UAC. At the same time, there was a difficult process of integration "from below", the core of which was the two surviving companies that had funds from the sale of fighters to China and India - Sukhoi and Irkut. It is not surprising that these two companies put forward projects for new civil aircraft - Sukhoi Superjet, which won the competition in 2002 to create a regional aircraft, and MS-21, the government decree on the creation of which was issued in 2010. At the same time, neither the Tu-204, of which about 80 units were produced in total, nor the Il-96 (more than 20) did not become truly serial due to the lack of introduction in the 90s - early 2000s. their engines, very weak sales support, and the Il-96 - and because of the four-engine, less economical than Western competitors, the scheme. At the same time, Boeing and Airbus did not sit idly on the Russian market during the 2000s. occupied a dominant position on it as the mass decommissioning of Soviet aircraft. The issue of international cooperation is no less important. In the mid-2000s, European EADS came closest to becoming the main partner of the Russian aviation industry: it became the owner of 10% of Irkut shares, and the Russian VTB bank bought 5% of EADS shares on the market. However, there were no decisive steps towards partnership - for various reasons, including political ones.
Airbus's 20-year forecast, published at the June Le Bourget Air Show, is not radically different from Boeing's forecast, but is more moderate. Sales volume by 2034 will amount to $ 4.9 trillion, the total number of new airliners produced will be 32,585 (12% lower than Boeing's), the number of cars with one passenger aisle will be 22,927, and at a cost of 55%. There is, however, a notable difference: Airbus predicts that demand for extra-large aircraft (such as the A380 and Boeing 747) will be 1,550, while Boeing expects only 620 to find buyers. This is not surprising, since the largest and most modern aircraft of this type, the A380, is produced by Airbus, while Boeing abandoned the development of an aircraft of this size in favor of a radical modernization of the Boeing 747. the world will grow to 91 from the current 47 (from Russia and now, and in 20 years they will be represented only by the Moscow air hub), namely, the A380 concept is focused on transportation between them.
Share for Sukhoi Superjet
Canadian Bombardier's forecast published last year focuses on aircraft of the size it produces. The company's marketers believe that by 2033 the demand for liners from 100 to 149 seats (which includes short Boeing versions 737 and A319, as well as the CSeries liner being developed by the Canadian company) will amount to 7100 units, or $ 465 billion in monetary terms. In its forecast published at last Le Bourget, Embraer expects the delivery of 6,350 jet aircraft with a capacity of 70 to 130 seats by 2034, including 380 in Russia and the CIS countries.
Thus, all forecasts of world aircraft manufacturers provide for a significant market niche for Sukhoi Superjet. The truly serial production of this aircraft (37 units produced), launched last year, has led to the fact that it occupied approximately 10% of the total sales of regional jet airliners.
View from Russia
Representative " Civil aircraft Sukhoi "said that, according to the company's forecasts, for the period 2015–2034. the capacity of the market for cars with a capacity of 91–120 seats will amount to 2,600 units, and the SSJ share - 14%, ie 364 units.
However, much more ambitious is the MS-21 project, which, like the Chinese C919, is aimed at the most capacious niche in the world market, where it will face much tougher competition from Boeing and Airbus, which will be brought to the market in 2016–2017. its new modifications Boeing 737MAX and A320neo, equipped with new highly efficient engines. The MC-21 will have the same engine as the A320neo, but it will be the first airliner with a composite (black) wing and will be equipped with a large number of the latest innovative systems, in 2016 only the first flight is planned (Sukhoi Superjet from the first test flight to the first commercial took about four years).
Oleg Panteleev, executive director of the Aviaport agency, believes that the feasibility of sales plans for new types of Russian aircraft is determined by three factors. Firstly, the production capabilities of the assembly sites - and there are no risks here. Secondly, the stability of cooperation in the supply of components - and this risk in the event of an aggravation of the international situation, the Russian aviation industry does not control. Thirdly, the possibilities of promotion to the world market - this issue is also not controlled by the aviation industry, but if the existing export support policy is maintained, the situation will look controllable.
A major reform has begun in the Russian aviation industry since 2006, when the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) was established. Now we are talking about the merger of the UAC, the Irkut corporation and the company " Civil aircraft Sukhoi "into a single structure that will deal with all the civilian programs of the UAC. It will also become the head division of the entire corporation.
This means that the UAC considers civil aircraft construction to be the key direction. On the one hand, in the face of a reduction in the state defense order, the inevitability of which has already been repeatedly stated at the highest level, aircraft manufacturers do not have to choose. On the other hand, if the authority of Russia in the field of military aviation is not challenged by anyone, then on the civil aircraft market our country is classified as an outsider.
Which is quite fair, given that only 30 civil aircraft were produced in Russia last year. For comparison, the market leaders, Boeing and Airbus, produced 748 and 577 aircraft, respectively.
A logical question arises - what can the UAC count on in the current situation?
Big pie
According to the forecast, which the United Aircraft Corporation presented at the July MAKS-2017 air show, the global demand for new passenger aircraft with a capacity of more than 30 seats in the next twenty years will amount to 41,800 aircraft with a total value of nearly $ 6 trillion.
At the same time, narrow-body aircraft with a capacity of 120 and more seats will be in the greatest demand among airlines, accounting for 63% of the total number of new aircraft. For this segment, the UAC is developing the MC-21 program.
About 4.6 thousand units of new jet aircraft with a capacity of 61-120 seats will be sold by 2036 (11% of the total number). This segment in the UAC is represented by the Sukhoi Superjet SSJ 100 program.
The demand for turboprop aircraft with a capacity of 30 seats or more will amount to about 2.3 thousand units. In this segment, the UAC is developing the Il-114 program.
The total demand for wide-body aircraft will amount to 7,450 aircraft. For this segment, the UAC, together with the Chinese Civil Aviation Corporation COMAS, are planning to develop and produce a wide-body long-range aircraft of a new generation. A joint venture was opened in Shanghai this year to manage the program.
That is, theoretically, Russian aircraft manufacturers have something to answer the market demands. In practice, everything is a little more complicated.
Three gray horses
To begin with, only Sukhoi Superjet is actually present on the market today. This is the first domestic aircraft developed after a quarter-century hiatus. Unfortunately, the hopes associated with this project were only partially justified.
Pilots who have piloted the Superjet rate the aircraft very highly - no worse than the Airbus A-320 (with better efficiency) and definitely better than the Brazilian Embraer. At the same time, they recognize the presence of many minor malfunctions, which, however, do not affect flight safety. The main complaint of the professionals is related to very poor service support, which is why the planes are idle for a long time without spare parts.
Passengers have more complaints - there is poor noise and vibration isolation ("I sat in the 7F seat near the engine and received free vibration massage - very loud noise and vibration"), as well as small and low windows.
Most often, Russians compare the SSJ 100 with the UAZ patriot car: good transport for passengers without any special complaints. It is noteworthy that the Mexican pilots (the Mexican company Interjet acquired 30 SSJ 100) dubbed the "Superjet" tank.
It is clear that with such characteristics it is not easy to conquer the world market. As a result, the project remains chronically unprofitable. To reach the profitability of the UAC, it is necessary to sell at least 300 aircraft, but so far three times less have been sold. The maximum annual production of SSJ 100 was reached in 2014 - 35 aircraft were produced. In 2015-2016, due to changes in the macroeconomic situation, sales plans were adjusted to 17 and 18 units, respectively.
For comparison, the Brazilian Embraer last year produced 225 aircraft: 117 business jets and 108 regional aircraft - Superjet rivals. It is not surprising that recently the President of the United Aircraft Corporation Yuri Slyusar announced the rejection of large volumes of SSJ production: the corporation plans to release 30-40 Superjets per year, but is not going to "scale this project to large volumes."
Now the main hope of the UAC has become the MS-21 project. This aircraft is close in characteristics to the current segment leader - the Canadian Bombardier СS300. Like the Canadian aircraft, the Russian one is built according to the most modern technologies using composite materials and with the same Pratt & Whitney engines (however, in the future, it is planned to install the domestic PD-14 engine on the MS-21). Economical engines and lightweight body allow Bombardier СS300 and МС-21 to save up to 20% fuel compared to Boeing and Airbus aircraft of this class. At the same time, the MS-21 is more capacious than the Bombardier CS300 - it has 176 passenger seats (the Canadian has 130), which makes its use more profitable.
The Il-114 is a plane from the past: it made its first flight back in 1999 and until 2012 was produced at the Tashkent Aviation Production Association named after I. V.P. Chkalov. In total, ten Il-114s were produced with Pratt & Whitney Canada engines. Now these aircraft are included in the Uzbekistan Airways fleet.
The United Aircraft Corporation plans to resume production of the Il-114 with Russian TV7-117ST engines at the plant in Lukhovitsy, which will produce 12-18 aircraft per year. The total volume of production, including civilian and special versions, can be 100 vehicles. The updated Il-114 should make its first flight in 2018.
Aeroflot against the Ministry of Industry and Trade
The main problem that the UAC must solve is not related to the development or production of new aircraft, but to their sales. It is already clear that the "Superjet" will not reach the production rate of 300 aircraft required to pay off the project. MS-21 with the current volume of investments will pay off after the sale of 200 aircraft. The already produced Il-114 has the greatest chances of paying off - if the planned 100 aircraft are produced and sold, the project can be considered commercially successful.
Meanwhile, according to Boeing estimates, the needs of the Russian market for the foreseeable future will amount to a maximum of 40 passenger aircraft of all types per year. It is unlikely that MS-21, SSJ-100 and Il-114 will occupy all this volume. Although the government is doing everything possible and impossible for this. In particular, the Ministry of Industry and Trade proposed to abolish the privileges on the import of foreign aircraft, which "will establish customs and tariff protection of the domestic market in the interests of Russian aircraft - SSJ 100 extended version and MS-21-300."
This innovation was actively opposed by Aeroflot, whose fleet in 2018 should receive 31 (!) Foreign aircraft. The company sent a letter to First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, which notes that if the preferential regime is suspended, additional costs for the import of aircraft will exceed 25 billion rubles. As a result, Aeroflot will have to reduce its purchase plan for aircraft "of both foreign and Russian production", which will not allow expanding the route network, "including regional and socially significant routes."
Photo: portal Moscow 24 / Lidia Shironina
Unreal export
Even if the main Russian airline is not eager to abandon the import of aircraft in order to support the Superjet and MS-21, then what can we say about foreigners. Moreover, foreign buyers of new Russian aircraft will have to take into account a bunch of additional risks.
First, the Irkut corporation, the manufacturer of the MC-21, is known in the world as a manufacturer of fighters. The first civilian aircraft produced by the corporation will be greeted by airlines with great caution. It will be possible to talk about purchases only when the experience of operating the MS-21 at Aeroflot has been gained (which will have to acquire new aircraft on a voluntary-compulsory basis).
Secondly, any new aircraft requires fine-tuning and revision, which on average takes about 15 years. And no serious airline will order large quantities of aircraft that have not passed this period. But even then, new manufacturers such as Irkut can only rely on orders from small carriers that do not have their own aircraft maintenance and repair facilities. It is these companies that are less tied to market leaders.
Thirdly, in 2018, the Chinese C919 enters the medium-haul aircraft market, which, relying on the massive support of its government, can become a serious competitor to all global manufacturers.
Thus, for at least the next 15-20 years, the Russian aircraft industry will be a planned unprofitable industry, living largely on budget subsidies. In these conditions, it is very likely that the Ministry of Finance will lobby for the next optimization of the aviation industry, after which only the export-attractive military segment will remain from the industry.
- Boeing's 20-year forecast reflects a 3.5 percent increase in aircraft demand over 2014
- Narrow-body and small / medium wide-body aircraft markets are the growth leaders in terms of the number and total cost of aircraft
Boeing predicts the need for 38,050 new aircraft over the next 20 years, up 3.5 percent from last year's forecast. The company today released its Current Market Outlook, estimating the total cost of new aircraft needed at $ 5.6 trillion.
“The commercial aircraft market remains robust and robust,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. In the future, we expect further market growth and steady demand for new aircraft. ”
By the end of the forecast period, the commercial aircraft fleet will double, from 21,600 units in 2014 to 43,560 in 2034. The growth will come from 58 percent of 38,050 aircraft delivered during the specified period. Passenger traffic growth will continue at about 4.9 percent annually, almost reaching the historical trend of 5 percent. Over 7 billion passengers will be transported by the end of the forecast period. Air cargo traffic will grow by about 4.7 percent annually.
The narrow-body aircraft market continues to lead in terms of growth and, as the largest segment, will require 26,730 aircraft over the next two decades. These aircraft form the backbone of the world's airline fleet, carrying up to 75 percent of passengers on more than 70 percent of routes. civil aviation... The growth in this segment is driven by the growth of low-cost airlines and traditional airlines in emerging markets.
“The Boeing 737-800 and the upcoming 737 MAX 8 are at the forefront of the narrow-body aircraft segment,” said Tinset. "These aircraft provide customers with the highest fuel efficiency, departures and class performance."
Around 35 percent of narrow-body vessels will be operated by low-cost airlines, Tinset added. highest potential for profit. With a 20 percent reduction in fuel consumption, the 737 MAX 200 is the ideal aircraft for them. ”
Boeing predicts that the wide-body segment of the market will require 8,830 new aircraft. First of all, small wide-body vessels with a passenger capacity of 200 to 300 seats, such as 787-8 and 787-9 Dreamliner, will be in demand. This year's outlook continues to reflect a shift in demand away from very large aircraft towards fuel efficient new twin-engine aircraft such as the 787 and the new 777X.
While most of the demand for new aircraft is still driven by the growth of airlines, a large and growing number of aging aircraft will require replacement. Annually, 2 to 3 percent of the operated fleet will need to be updated.
“The 737 MAX, 777 and 787 are in an ideal position to take advantage of this wave of substitutions,” notes Tinset.
The cargo market continues to strengthen and will require around 920 new aircraft over the 20 years that the forecast covers.
“We have seen steady growth in the air freight market over the past two years, and we expect this market to continue to grow,” said Tinset. "This is great news for our cargo aircraft business, including the 767, 777 and 747-8."
Boeing's annual market forecasts have the longest history and provide the most comprehensive analysis of the aviation industry. The full report is available at www.boeing.com/cmo.
New aircraft deliveries: 2015-2034
| Aircraft type | Passenger capacity | Total deliveries | Price |
| Regional | Up to 90 | 2 490 | $ 100 billion |
| Narrow-body | 90 – 230 | 26 730 | $ 2770 billion |
| Small wide-body | 200 – 300 | 4 770 | $ 1,250 billion |
| Medium wide body | 300 – 400 | 3 520 | $ 1,220 billion |
| Large wide-body | From 400 | 540 | $ 230 billion |
| Total | ——— | 38 050 | $5,6 trillion |
Over the next two decades, the Asian market, including China, will lead in terms of total shipments.
Dear colleagues!
On behalf of the United Aircraft Corporation, we present a long-term outlook for the development of the civilian commercial segment. This is an important event for us, since market expectations, the direction vector and the development of airlines are for us the message that we are trying to take into account when creating a line of aircraft.
UAC in the current period of time is going through a period of formation and strengthening in the market. You know that planes have appeared in our product line in almost all segments from 30 seats. We understand that in order to occupy a worthy niche in the civil aviation market, it is imperative and necessary to be competitive not only inside Russian Federation, but also in the foreign market.
We try to take into account the requirements of airlines and their expectations not only in the appearance of the aircraft, but in their technical characteristics... The total market volume until 2035 is estimated at about $ 6 trillion, 42,000 aircraft with a size of 30 or more. And as I said, in almost all directions, the UAC has projects to varying degrees of readiness.
First of all, it is Sukhoi SuperJet 100. Now about 100 aircraft have been delivered, which are operated in Russia, Europe, Latin America, Southeast Asia. Yesterday STLC under the Sukhoi SuperJet 100 program. For us this is extremely significant event as it plans to revive regional transportation in southern Russia based at Rostov airport. We will also sign today to increase the aircraft fleet for the period 2020-2021, in addition to those that Azimut will receive under the contract in 2017-2018 - these are 8 aircraft.
In the segment of narrow-body aircraft, where the most competitive market is, you know that we have the MC-21 project. The plane made its first flight in May of this year, and is now undergoing flight and certification tests. The first deliveries will take place in 2019; we expect it to be a worthy competitor that will take its rightful place in the narrow-body aircraft fleet. Of the large planes, we have a project with COMAC - this is SHFDMS. We have registered a joint venture. Active work is underway with Chinese partners, the technical appearance of this aircraft, its characteristics and the SHFDMS aircraft family (wide-body long-range aircraft) have been agreed upon. A joint venture has been registered, active work is underway with Chinese partners, the technical appearance of the aircraft, characteristics, family are being coordinated, and we are now at the stage of the beginning of preliminary design.
In the segment of regional aircraft - the Il-114 turboprop. That year, as you know, it was decided to launch the Il-114-300 program. The first flight of the aircraft is expected in 2018, deliveries in 2021. Within the framework of MAKS there will be a second conference with operators, I hope that the aircraft will fully meet the expectations of regional companies and we will try to take into account their requirements.
That's all I wanted to say. I now give the floor to Tamara Kakushadze, Vice President for Marketing of Sukhoi Civil Aircraft.
Thank you for your attention!
Good afternoon, dear colleagues!
Literally an hour later. We are not afraid, even wondering, if you can compare our rating with their rating. This is a kind of professional experience for our team of marketers who present the UAC forecast.
This year is a jubilee for the UAC. We have been around for 10 years. We believe that we have achieved quite serious success. Starting from the fact that we have retained and developed the competence for the creation of civilian passenger aircraft. We have more than 100 SSJ 100 aircraft in operation. The MC-21 has at the moment, while still at the stage of certification tests, more than 175 firm orders.
Also, as Mr. Masalov said, this year we signed an agreement and opened a joint venture with the Chinese aircraft manufacturing corporation COMAC in China for a full-scale launch of the wide-body family program.
Over these 10 years, we have really actively improved and developed the base and tools for the formation of a high-quality, sufficiently detailed and qualified market overview, its forecast for the long term, precisely in order for our strategic objectives, which are set within the product line, to meet the market requirements that we look forward to the future.
I'll start with an overview of the Russian market. In terms of the volume of the transportation market, we currently rank 7th in the world. We believe that by 2036 the passenger turnover of Russian airlines will grow by almost 2.5 times and will reach almost 500 billion passenger kilometers. At the same time, we estimate the aggregate average annual growth rate at 4.1%, which is slightly below the world average. Over the next 20 years, according to our forecast Russian airlines will receive, based on their needs, about 1,170 new aircraft.
The existing firm orders, which are now placing airlines for various products in different categories, cover about 47% of the expected future demand. It should be noted that this demand is to the greatest extent covered in groups of narrow-body aircraft with a dimension of more than 120 seats. This is somewhere around 57%. Among this order, orders for the MC-21-300 aircraft account for a significant share.
We also forecast strong demand in the segment of aircraft with a capacity of 60-120 seats, somewhere around 15% of the total demand, which is higher than the world average. This is primarily due to the fact that active work is currently underway, including with the support of the state, to develop effective methods to stimulate sales, including the presentation of effective operating leasing. We are actively working with GTLK to ensure that the proposals we form are interesting and attractive for airlines.
CIS countries. We continue to qualify certain countries of the region precisely in this format, because, in our assessment, the general problems of socio-economic development, close economic, cultural, interpersonal ties between our countries determine exactly similar trends. Actually, mutual dependence, including influencing the development of the passenger transportation market. According to our estimates, the volume of passenger air transportation in the CIS countries will increase 2.5 times by 2036. At the same time, in the global passenger turnover, passenger traffic in the countries of the CIS region is less than 1%.
We believe that, taking into account the pace of development, taking into account the stabilization of the indicators of population migration, the average annual growth rate of passenger traffic in the region as a whole over 20 years will be about 4.6%. The demand for new passenger aircraft in the region is estimated at around 260 new aircraft. The existing orders, which are currently placed, cover about 18% of the estimated demand. But it is worth noting that in the countries of this region, the most active buyers are the secondary market, they purchase more than half of their total demand. This was taken into account in our forecast, therefore, perhaps at first glance, it seems modest to you, but we see such forecast indicators specifically for new equipment.
China. The next most interesting for us is the Chinese market. During the forecast period, China, according to our assessment and the assessment of global institutions, will demonstrate the highest dynamics of development, including the dynamics of development of passenger traffic. This will ensure the movement of China from the 4th position, from the regions we are considering, to the 3rd position, being second only to the countries in the aggregate of the Asia-Pacific region and Europe, and ahead of North America and all other regions combined in 20 years. ...
We expect China's passenger traffic to increase more than 3.3 times over the next 20 years. Based on the compound annual growth rate, we see that the Chinese market could be more than 6%, which will lead to the estimate that we are demonstrating. In 20 years, the Chinese market will require more than 7,000 aircraft. This is the equivalent of $ 1 trillion when measured at catalog prices. If we talk about the order book that Chinese airlines already have, it covers only 19% of future demand in this market. And here there is something to fight for. We estimate that the greatest demand is expected in the segment of narrow-body aircraft with a capacity of more than 120 seats. At the moment, it is covered by orders by 17%, this is mostly Boeing and Airbus, as well as orders for the national Chinese project C919. We believe that based on our current ties and our potential development together with China, we can claim a significant share in this market for the MC-21 aircraft.
Asian-Pacific area. If we talk about the Asia-Pacific region as a whole, but without China, it can be noted that, despite the relatively small excess of the growth rate of passenger turnover over the world average, the Asia-Pacific region will, in the foreseeable future, take an almost leading position in the world passenger turnover market. First of all, these are: India, Malaysia, Indonesia. These countries provide the main drivers for future development, make the Asia-Pacific region for all manufacturers the most interesting market that can transform the structure of the world park in the future.
Regarding the global passenger turnover, according to our estimates, the Asia-Pacific region will occupy almost 20% of the world passenger turnover by 2036. According to the UAC, the total demand for new passenger aircraft in this market will be more than 8,600 units. At the same time, the emphasis will be placed on aircraft with a larger capacity. Although, if we talk about the structure of orders, at the moment, based on our forecast, the current portfolio of orders already covers 43% of the expected demand. One such essential hallmark In this market, it should be considered that the demand for wide-body aircraft in this region will stand out and in the general indicators of world demand, according to our estimates, it amounted to about 23%, which is slightly more than the world average.
Let's move on to the European market. For the forecast period, the European market for passenger traffic will retain its leading positions in the world ranking, but it will face quite serious competition from the dynamically developing economies. First of all, this will concern long-haul transportation and wide-body fleet. At the same time, passenger traffic will almost double. The compound will grow at a compound annual rate of 3.5%. This is lower than the world average, but this suggests that the European market has already become quite saturated in terms of demand. Its current fleet is significant to accommodate high traffic volumes. At the same time, the share of Europe in the world passenger turnover park will slightly decrease from 23% in 2016, and by 2036 it will amount to about 19%.
Over the next 20 years, European airlines are expected to purchase more than 8,600 aircraft. This forecast takes into account the peculiarity that the European region is the leader in the ranking of secondary market donors. It is rapidly renewing its fleet, transferring older aircraft to other regions. If we talk about the current portfolio of orders, it can be noted that in none of the segments in terms of capacity, the current portfolio of orders does not cover the demand by more than 30%. Naturally, in the same region, it is even visually clear, there is a high proportion of the development of narrow-body fleets. The largest share is precisely narrow-body aircraft with a capacity of more than 140 seats.
Latin America. According to our estimates, in the forecast period, the growth rate of passenger turnover in Latin America will be significantly higher than the world one, but initially modest indicators of total GDP in this region will most likely lead to maintaining a serious distance in the total volume of passenger traffic relative to the regional leaders in passenger turnover.
At the same time, starting from the currently small base, we expect a threefold increase in passenger traffic with a compound average annual growth rate of passenger air traffic of about 5.7%. But its share in the world passenger transportation market will not exceed 6.5% in 20 years. The total demand for new passenger aircraft is estimated at 3,400 aircraft. Of the firm orders announced for new aircraft, only 29% of our projected demand is covered. We expect a record high share of deliveries in the segment of narrow-body aircraft with a capacity of 120 and more seats.
Near East. Also an interesting market for the UAC. Along with China and Latin America, it will significantly outpace other regions of the world in terms of passenger turnover growth, but it is small in terms of population and has a small global total GDP, which will not allow reducing the distance between the leaders and this region.
We expect passenger traffic to grow by almost 3.2 times by 2036, with a CAGR of around 6%. The region's share in the total passenger traffic will grow from 9.5% in 2016 to 12%. This is a big leap forward. It should be noted that we see more than half of the deliveries of new aircraft in the wide-body segment. Due to this, the share will increase to a greater extent. At the same time, 2/3 of these deliveries are expected in the segment of the group of wide-body aircraft with a capacity of more than 320 seats. It can be said that the airlines in the region will provide up to 60% of the total global demand for these extra-large aircraft.
North America. The air transportation market of the countries of the region will develop, follow general global trends, but, taking into account the redistribution of the activity of the global economy, it will gradually lose its position. At the turn of 2036, this market will give way not only to Europe, but also to give way to China and the Asia-Pacific region. At the same time, the volume of passenger air traffic, according to our expectations, will almost double, with an average annual growth rate of passenger turnover 2.7 times.
A low indicator, almost like in Europe, but this is due to the fact that a highly saturated market, initially a large current structure of the park, a fairly high indicator of market saturation already now. What is important, according to our estimates, the share of the North American market in the total world balance will decrease from 24% to 17%, yielding its positions to emerging markets. A characteristic feature of the region is a high share in the expected demand for regional jet aircraft from 60 to 90 seats. This is about 19% of the total number of new aircraft in the region. At that time, according to the general average indicators, this segment accounted for no more than 6%.
Africa. Let's note the perspectives of the passenger transportation market in Africa. According to the KLA, they will be determined primarily by more than 50% increase in population over the next 20 years. In combination with rather modest indicators for the economic development of the region. The region as a whole is highly fragmented. Central and North Africa very different from each other in terms of traffic, in their structure of the formation of route networks. This introduces certain adjustments that we took into account in our forecast. As a result, we give the African market by 2036 the expectation that the volume of passenger traffic will grow 2.5 times, with a compound annual rate of passenger air traffic at the global level of 4.5-4.6%. The share of the global passenger turnover market will remain practically unchanged, in 2016 it is 2.1%, in 2036 - 2.2%. African airlines, through purchases on the secondary aircraft market, will satisfy about 41% of the total need for passenger aircraft.
This circumstance largely determined the amount of demand for new passenger aircraft, which is presented rather modestly. There are fewer than 1,000 aircraft for 20 years. In this situation, despite the current structure of the fleet, we see that the market for wide-body aircraft promises to become the most profitable in this region. Let's just say, not by the number of seats, but by the amount of income that will come to manufacturers from the sale of this aircraft. The demand for wide-body aircraft alone has been estimated by us for 20 years at more than 200 units.
In general, if we talk about the structure of the market and the demand that we forecast for a 20-year period, it can be noted that the global fleet will almost double and will reach 47,000 aircraft. At the same time, it will be significantly updated, largely due to the fact that part of it will be for the need to update the current fleet of outgoing ships, part for the need associated with the development of the air transportation itself.
In the current forecasted 20 years, we estimate that in the aggregate across all markets, about 42,000 new passenger aircraft will be required. It should be noted that this demand is influenced by many factors, both purely demand in the global economy and an increase in the world's population. National and international organizations, the population in the next 20 years will grow by more than 1.3 billion people, which will amount to an increase of about 20%. World GDP will grow by more than $ 50 trillion.
The doubling of the passenger aircraft fleet will be influenced by changes and modernization of the existing infrastructure, the supply of more and more aircraft with new efficiency indicators on the market, which will lead to a decrease in the cost of transportation and increase the mobility of the population.
In many regions, we expect government support for airlines. There are many national programs that stimulate the development and modernization of ground infrastructure, the development of airline fleets. It is worth noting that the largest increase (more than 140%) we see in the segment of large narrow-body aircraft. This is exactly the class where the proposal for the MS-21 falls.
We estimate that the fleet of narrow-body aircraft with a capacity of less than 120 seats will also almost double. As part of the implementation of the wide-body project, we see that the fleet of wide-body aircraft with a capacity of up to 300 seats will increase by more than 70%.
Thank you for your attention.
