In recent weeks, the intensity of the shelling of Donbass along the line of "Putin's knee" has noticeably increased and, in connection with this, there have been suggestions that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing for a large-scale offensive.
Both Kiev and the Kremlin would benefit from a "small victorious war."
Kiev - in order to regain confidence in the authorities, greatly undermined by the current economic situation in the country, and at the same time to distract the people from this very situation.
To the Kremlin - for the same, by and large. And also to cover up the situation in Syria, which leaves much to be desired and it is simply impossible to get out of it without good cover.
But that's in theory.
In practice, the Kremlin abandoned Donbass in favor of Europe, Swiss accounts, friendship with Merkel and other cellos, not in order to recapture it later.
And for Kiev, starting a large-scale war is too risky. This will be a clear violation of the Minsk agreements, and if the OSCE can still close its eyes to shelling along the "Putin line", then it will be simply impossible to ignore the large-scale offensive, it will be necessary to open its eyes with all that it implies for Kiev's relations with the European Union. Let me remind you that it was Merkel and Oland who persuaded Poroshenko to sign the Minsk agreements, the failure of which is unlikely to be approved. In addition, there is a risk of driving the APU into the next boiler, and then what?
Although you can look at the situation from the other side and draw parallels with the 08.08.08 war, on the eve of which there were also frequent skirmishes and Saakashvili decided to send troops to storm Tskhinvali just during the Olympics.
The Olympics in Rio will begin one of these days.
Will the history of 2008 repeat itself, only this time in Donbass?
The analogy is interesting, but the situation is still not the same as in South Ossetia in 2008.
First of all, Donbass is not South Ossetia. And the scale is different and the balance of forces is completely different. If the Georgian troops had multiple superiority over the Ossetian ones and without Russia's intervention Tskhinvali would have been taken in a matter of hours, then the Armed Forces of Ukraine would not be able to take Donetsk and Lugansk in a matter of hours, this is out of the question.
Therefore, Poroshenko will not be able to end the war in one "Olympic night" in any case. Under no circumstances.
The situation is also different in that Russia had to send troops to defend Tskhinvali, which Saakashvili clearly did not count on for a number of reasons. And the terrain was not very helpful, and Putin was in Beijing, and in general, until 08/08/08, no one imagined that post-Soviet Russia was capable of such a throw.
But in Donbass everything is different. Putin does not need to leave any troops to defend Donetsk. You just don't need to. Because you don't need to. Gladiolus because. Ikhtamnet means.
In addition, it will turn out too "a blueprint" if Poroshenko repeats Saakashvili's maneuver one to one.
Let's not forget that Poroshenko is not a completely independent commander, to put it mildly. Advisors from the United States are behind Petya Waltzman's back (just like advisers from Russia are behind Zakharchenko's back) and Pan Poroshenko has no right to start a war without their agreement. He has no mandate to do this.
And the SBU is essentially the Ukrainian branch of the CIA, as a result of which surprises on the part of Poroshenko are practically excluded. If something happens, Petya Valtsaman will simply be found choking on a cherry pit and cry over the body of "Ukraine's best chance", and this is where his attempt to make an independent decision "across the stripes" will end.
Maybe then Washington itself will sanction a decisive attack on Donbass?
This is theoretically possible.
Although I doubt that the Americans will go for such an explicit copying of the 08.08.08 history. Typically, Washington acts in a variety of ways, not repeating two scenarios like a blueprint. Moreover, the last time the operation ended not entirely successfully, let's say.
And most importantly, if Washington decides to initiate a large-scale offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Donbass in the coming days, it will drive the Kremlin into a corner. And once cornered, even a rat can bite. This is hardly what the United States wants, and even on the eve of the elections.
It will be extremely unprofitable for American democrats to get a "bite" from Putin, who has found himself in a desperate situation. This will undermine their position and increase the chances of a victory for Trump, who is in favor of negotiations with Russia.
But on the other hand, the pre-liberation situation of the American Democrats is already rather precarious, so they also need a "small victorious war", wherever it may be. Although it will be more likely Syria than Donbass. Because the Donbass is not interesting for American voters, it dropped out of the American agenda for a long time.
The situation with the Minsk agreements lately reminds me of Khasavyurt.
Let me remind you that the first Chechen one ended with the signing of the Khasavyurt agreements, which ... were violated six months before the change of the Russian president. And the presidential elections themselves were held against the backdrop of - yes, that very "small victorious war."
Therefore, if the Minsk agreements will repeat the fate of the Khasavyurt ones, then the "small victorious war" should begin either on the eve of the presidential elections in Ukraine, or on the eve of the presidential elections in Russia.
However, logically, there is still a year and a half before the presidential elections in Russia, even a little more. This means that if the "small victorious war" begins before the election of the Russian president, it will not start this year, but next year. Unless, of course, the Kremlin decided to hold the elections a year earlier, which cannot be ruled out either.
But here we must not forget that the "small victorious war" in Donbass may end for the Kremlin with a deterioration in relations with the West, which are already difficult. The only exception can be a war coordinated with the West itself, which in principle is also possible - for example, with the aim of dividing Ukraine "by the hands of Moscow", this may have its own meaning.
There may also be such an option that the breakdown of the Minsk agreements and the "small victorious war" will be timed to coincide with the presidential elections in Ukraine. But there are still two years before the presidential elections in Ukraine, which means the war is also premature. Unless the West decides to change Poroshenko ahead of schedule.
It has already been said about the "small victorious war" timed to coincide with the presidential elections in the United States - if it happens, it will be more likely in Syria than in Donbass, because the fate of Donbass and even the whole of Ukraine does not worry the American voter so much that it could become decisive for the elections ...
But the most important thing is that the balance of power in Donbass is such that a "small victorious war" seems generally difficult to carry out.
Donbass has become a place where Russia and Anti-Russia clashed, a geopolitical rift, a place where the Russian and Ukrainian peoples clashed with betrayal and with each other.
The resumption of a large-scale war in Donbass does not promise anything small and victorious to anyone.
That is why the Minsk agreements were signed, that both mafia-kleptocratic post-Soviet clans - Russian and Ukrainian - faced great risks and losses, as well as pressure from Germany and France, which absolutely did not need a war on the doorstep of Europe.
It turned out to be more profitable for Kiev and the Kremlin to draw a "ceasefire line" across Donbass and throw mines, shells over it, as well as accusations against each other. What they are doing to this day.
Therefore, the intensification of shelling may simply turn out to be a "fierce truce," and not at all preparation for an offensive.
Although, unfortunately, nothing can be ruled out.
For and against a new war there are such strong factors that I personally do not undertake to determine which of them will outweigh.
I can just briefly list those and others.
For a new war in Donbass:
1. The need to divert public attention from the economic situation (this is true for both Kiev and the Kremlin).
2. The need to cover the exit from Syria (for the Kremlin).
3. The need for a victorious war on the eve of the presidential elections in Russia (most likely in a year, but possibly this year as well) or Ukraine (similarly).
4. Upcoming elections in the United States (it is unlikely that Washington needs a war in Donbass for this, but it cannot be ruled out).
6. The beginning of the Olympics, which may serve as a cover for the start of hostilities (although a too exact repetition of the events of 08.08.08 looks doubtful in itself).
Against a new war in Donbass:
1. High risk of unfavorable development of events for either side, defeat will almost certainly lead to a change of power in the losing side.
2. Almost certainly a protracted unpopular war instead of a small and victorious one.
3. It is impossible to take Donetsk in one night, as was planned with Tskhinvali (to the question of repeating the operation 08.08.08).
4. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will not go on the offensive without the sanction of Washington, no matter how much Kiev or the Kremlin would like. The VSN will not go on the offensive, all the more - this is ruled out by the position taken by Russia in this conflict.
5. Washington is more interested in Syria than Donbass, so the most likely place of aggravation on the eve of the US elections is the Middle East, not Ukraine.
6. The Minsk agreements, carried out "with special cruelty", which allow Kiev and the Kremlin to constantly throw accusations, look more advantageous than a protracted unpopular war with unpredictable consequences.
As can be seen from the above lists, it is almost impossible to determine what will play a decisive role. In any case, not at our level with you.
We do not know what they think about the future of Ukraine in Washington, whether they want to divide it or leave it in its current state of "fail state" for many years. We do not know if the Kremlin will wait for 2018 or decide to hold the presidential elections ahead of schedule. We do not know whether Poroshenko will be kept until the end of his term or whether they will decide to replace him in advance. Or have already decided ...
Unless astrologers can say whether a new war will begin in the Donbass in the coming weeks.
But I'm not an astrologer.
One thing I know for sure - it does not depend on the opinion and desire of the residents of Donbass. Therefore, there is simply no such factor as the opinion of the Donetsk people in the above list. And this is probably the saddest thing in the current situation, almost sadder than a possible war.
A regular meeting of the contact group on Donbass took place in Minsk. As reported the authorized representative of the LPR Vladislav Deinogo, the parties again failed to agree on the disengagement of forces. And from the politicians were showered with forecasts of how the events in the region would now develop. Forecasts, it should be noted, are one more alarming than the other.
Full-scale hostilities in Donbass may resume if Kiev does not begin to implement the first three points of the Minsk agreements. As stated plenipotentiary representative of the DPR in the contact group in Minsk Denis Pushilin, in this case, there will be a resumption of intense hostilities through the fault of Kiev.
Let us recall that the aforementioned clauses of the agreements require the parties to immediately cease fire, withdraw all heavy weapons by both sides at a distance of 50 kilometers from each other, as well as ensure effective monitoring and verification of the ceasefire and withdrawal of weapons. Despite the fact that these agreements were signed long ago by both warring parties, the situation in the conflict zone, according to Pushilin, is getting worse every day. And there is no progress after the next negotiations on a political settlement.
“The situation remains tense, at any moment it can flare up and develop into full-fledged military clashes. Ukraine does not fulfill its obligations in the military and political spheres. This is seen not only by us, it is seen by our citizens, who put their signatures under the petition to the UN Security Council on non-compliance with the agreements by Kiev. There are more than 320,000 such people in the DPR, "Pushilin stated, adding that over the past five to six days the situation has escalated to the maximum.
In turn Deputy of the People's Council of the DPR Miroslav Rudenko specified that a full-scale war in Donbass could resume as early as this month. He said: “I am not a military strategist, so it is difficult to give an accurate forecast, but judging by the aggravation of the situation and the growing aggressive rhetoric on the part of Ukraine, it can be assumed that the start of a full-scale war is planned for August-September, when weather conditions will allow launching a massive offensive. I really hope that this will not happen after all, and that statements, including those made by Denis Pushilin, reveal and prevent Kiev's plans. But if this happens, the DPR and LPR will have enough strength and capabilities to defend themselves. "
“Such statements, especially from Pushilin’s lips, can be regarded as“ the last Chinese warning ”to Kiev,” I’m sure ex-representative of the DPR Foreign Ministry in Moscow Daria Mitina... - Because he and only he is authorized to make official messages on behalf of the republic in the international arena and officially represents the republic in the Minsk process. Taking into account the fact that he always coordinates his statements with Moscow - draw your own conclusions.
"SP": - The situation remains tense, at any moment it can flare up and develop into full-fledged military clashes. When and under what conditions can this moment come?
- The situation is constantly heating up, but there are boundaries beyond which it passes into a different quality. Donetsk's security is critical.
"SP": - Is it not yet clear that Kiev is not going to comply with either the first three, or any particular clause of the Minsk agreements? Or are there still hopes that the West will coerce?
- My point of view is not compelling. In the event of a resumption of hostilities, all agreements will be nullified.
"SP": - To what extent is the republic ready for the resumption of the war? Has it become stronger over the past year and a half since the signing of Minsk-2?
- The Republic and its army, which has become professional over these one and a half years, are in constant readiness.
Pushilin's words, according to political scientist Eduard Popov, it should be understood as follows: the DPR warns the world community that Kiev is preparing an invasion and does not leave the republic a chance for a peaceful life.
- In recent weeks, the threat of invasion has also been discussed in Russia at the highest political level, including President Putin. The leaders of the DPR periodically voiced similar predictions. The concentration of manpower and equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the line of contact, other military preparations of Ukraine leave no other opinion.
"SP": - Do you agree that Kiev has finally made it clear that it will not fulfill its obligations? What played a decisive role? Refusal to approve Russian ambassador? Could this have pushed Moscow to the idea that there is nothing more to talk with Kiev about?
- Kiev is now openly and blatantly violating the Minsk agreements. But until the very end, even when he starts an offensive, he will convince the world community and his own citizens that it was the republics of Donbass and, of course, Russia that violated Minsk.
I have repeatedly stated that Kiev's tactics are by all means to provoke the enemy to be the first to open fire. For Donbass - daily and more and more intense shelling. For Russia - a refusal to receive an ambassador.
Back in the spring of 1914, I predicted that Kiev could fire on the border territories of Russia in order to cause return fire and "occupation" of part of Ukraine. Perhaps these plans will be implemented now.
I would like to believe that Moscow has finally appreciated the impossibility of pursuing a policy of appeasing Ukraine. It seems to me that the candidacy of Ambassador Babich speaks about this. I got the impression that Moscow calculated Kiev's reaction and incorporated this forecast into their plans.
"SP": - How, in the event of a resumption of hostilities, will the West behave? The United States has elections on its way, is that up to them now? The EU also, in general, is not in the most favorable situation to solve the problems of some Ukraine ...
- The topic of the upcoming presidential elections in the United States is undoubtedly one of the critical factors events in Ukraine. I'm not an Americanist, it's hard for me to talk about it. But let me remind you: the invasion of the Georgian military in South Ossetia also took place during the Olympics and in the year of the US presidential election.
"SP": - Representatives people's republics handed over to the UN representative the signatures of Donbass residents under the appeal on non-implementation of the Minsk agreements by Kiev. What are they counting on?
- Collecting signatures on crimes against humanity is a necessary and useful diplomatic and propaganda step. Another thing is that something like this - and much more - should have been done two years ago. The purpose of the action is propaganda: to show the West the true face of Ukraine. First of all, to the alternative West. Society and political anti-mainstream.
However, the boundaries of the latter are constantly blurring and becoming wider. It is also important that in the information war, the winner is the one who is the first to occupy this or that niche. If it were not for this step, something similar would have been proposed by Ukraine.
"SP": - Both sides did not get what they wanted from the truce. Who benefits from the resumption of the war now?
- Both sides are in serious condition. Donbass - because Ukraine is constantly shelling its territory. In Ukraine, a lot of insoluble political, financial, economic and other problems have accumulated in a tight knot. The Ukrainian regime is approaching the brink of an abyss (a new "Maidan" or a military coup) and the only way out is to redirect aggression to an external enemy.
Who better took advantage of the truce? It is hard to say. Both sides have built up their military capabilities. But in Ukraine, perhaps, the crack of social division is stronger. For all the critical attitude to the order in the LPNR, public sentiment in Donbass seems to me more monolithic and unequivocally inclined towards victory.
"SP": - Is there still a possibility to prevent the war?
- There is a chance to prevent a major war (and there will be a war of such a destructive force, which was not even in the summer of 2014), but every day the opportunities are diminishing. Russian President Vladimir Putin initiated a telephone conversation with the leaders of the United States, France and Germany precisely in order to prevent this highly probable and almost inevitable war. But, I'm afraid, his peacekeeping efforts and Russia's endless compromises did not find understanding in western capitals... Therefore, I am pessimistic about the prospects for peace in Donbass.
- Probably, in Donbass they hoped for the prevalence of common sense in Kiev, and that the OSCE will be able to influence those who are more and more actively shelling Donetsk and other cities of the LDNR, - believes political scientist Alexander Dudchak.“But the situation is only getting worse and it makes less sense to silently watch the daily violations and daily deaths of civilians. It seems that the cup of patience is overflowing ...
"SP": - How do you think the military scenario can develop?
- Still, it seems to me that despite the increased activity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, one should hardly expect a full-scale war. Indeed, in this case, there will be new "cauldrons" and the death of a huge number of people in the name of the crazy ideas of politicians.
Kiev cannot voluntarily abandon its policy towards Donbass. And if the United States does not exert serious pressure on Kiev, the conflict can drag on for a very long time. The reserves from the Soviet times are enough for this.
Nobody in Kiev seriously expects to win. But at the same time, they are sure that there will be no offensive on Kiev from the Donbass. A comfortable war for Ukrainian oligarchs.
No sooner had humanity recovered from the previous End of the World, as the Internet environment again speaks of the impending apocalypse. A new End of the World awaits our entire planet as early as August 19, 2017. Hysteria and panic again engulfed the entire media space. So the same can happen on this day, but is it really the end of the world?
All the panic appeared due to the fact that the predictions of Matrona of Moscow were published on the Internet. Allegedly from her words “In the evening everyone will die, and in the morning they will rise. And mankind awaits sorrows and misfortunes, which no one has seen. " But as it turned out, this phrase sounded back in 1993 and in 2000 and even in 2012. And how in the game “spoiled phone” the public changed this expression, which was published back in 1993 as follows: “There will be no war, everyone will die without war, there will be many victims, all the dead will lie on the ground. And I will also tell you: in the evening everything will be, and in the morning you will rise - everything will go into the ground. The war goes on without war. " And not only was the phrase itself paraphrased, it was not Matrona, who is credited with such words, but her compatriot, the headman of the Sebenskaya church, Anna Filipovna Vybornova, who uttered it.
And even if we assume that Anna Filippovna conveyed the words of Matrona, it should be noted that there is not a single mention of the exact date, and even that these events will in fact be the end of the world. But one of the famous scientific experts decided to report even more colossal news about the end of all living things. According to David Mead, the end of the world will not happen on August 19, he believes that it will happen this fall. According to his version, the Earth will collide with a planet well known to us since 2012 and 2016, Nibiru and there will be an apocalypse. But such a statement has already sounded before, when everyone was waiting for the End of the World in past years.
End of the world August 19, 2017: fatal truth or a simple fake
Experts do not deny that one day humanity will disappear, but many are sure that this will happen gradually. And all because of experiments with nuclear weapons, or else someone will create an invincible virus. But a cosmic catastrophe can also happen, but it should be noted that scientists are sure that this will definitely not happen in 2017.
Vanga's prediction about a cold empty Europe in the near future should begin to come true, and this is eagerly awaited and feared by millions of people around the world. However, knowing the allegorical nature of many of the prophecies of the great Bulgarian seer, we believe that everything may turn out not at all as expected. You can get the answer to the question.
In the article:
Wanga's prediction 2016 - cold empty Europe
Vanga predicted many events of world significance that came true in different time... This is collapse Soviet Union, the war in Ukraine, the events in Syria. It has not yet come true, besides, they are rather twofold.
Many are difficult to interpret. Most often, people understand that they have come true, after the onset of the event promised to her. This was the case with the Crimea. Vanga said that he would separate from one bank and stick to the other. It happened something like this, but not in the literal sense, and after all, the isthmus was expected to flood or erode.
Vanga said that 2016 will be a cold, empty Europe. Nobody will live on these lands. Europe will be completely empty. Before saying this, Wang said the phrase “ No weapons, it's bad". Therefore, it was concluded that Europe will become empty after hostilities. However, in fact, European countries are in for so much trouble that it is difficult to predict the exact cause of their decline.
Some optimistic citizens believe that Vanga's prophecy that Europe will be empty means that there will be no Europeans left there. It is often interpreted in such a way that people of other nationalities will rule in European countries.
Wanga - Europe will be empty after cataclysms and wars
About Europe in 2016, Wanga said enough to scare the inhabitants of European countries. For example, this year Europe is expected to be severely affected by hostilities. The United States will start a war with a certain Muslim country. This war will destroy Europe. However, it also does not inspire optimism.
The Muslim country will be cornered. She will have to use chemical weapons. As a result, European territories will become uninhabitable. Vanga's prediction about Europe and Russia contains words that the latter will coexist with empty and cold lands. There is an opinion that the country may turn out to be not Muslim, but will be located in the eastern part of the mainland. Perhaps America will fight Russia.
Vanga's predictions about the war with Muslims indicate that after the use of chemical weapons by the latter, Europeans will suffer from numerous diseases. Deadly viruses will mow down the population of the EU countries. Most residents will die from disease caused by exposure to chemical weapons. Only those who have time to leave will be saved.
Vanga's predictions about Europe also promise natural disasters. So, this year a certain celestial body should fall to the Earth. Mainly, the territory of Europe will suffer. The heavenly body will fall into the water, but the consequences will still be serious. Several countries will disappear under water forever after this disaster. The climate of the European part of the continent will change markedly.
A seer from Bulgaria also promised a tsunami that will wipe out several more European countries from the face of the Earth. According to her, after that evil will break out of the earth and destroy the countries of the Eurozone. Perhaps we are talking about an earthquake or other natural disaster. According to the prophetess, only Russia can be saved, nothing else will remain in the world except her glory and the glory of Vladimir. Many believe that this is Vanga's prophecy for Putin.
Vanga about Europe in 2016 - the moon of Jupiter
In 2016, a probe will be launched into Jupiter's orbit. He should work there for about a year. During this time, the rest of the projects on the launch of probes will be suspended. Scientists from America are going to concentrate exclusively on studying the moon of Jupiter.
Perhaps Wanga meant that the search for life in Europe in 2016 will not be crowned with success. The heavenly body will be cold and lifeless. Many believe in this version of the interpretation of the prophecy more than in the likelihood of the Third World War, which was deserted as a result of Europe and the world domination of Russia.
In general, it is difficult to say for sure what exactly is hidden behind the mysterious words of the Bulgarian prophetess, however, one way or another, soon the truth will be revealed to everyone, and we will find out why Europe should have become cold and empty, because previous predictions came true with amazing accuracy.
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